Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 2.342167 2.484062 2.638693 2.821452 3.033958 3.276446 3.579006
2025-04-27 2.221541 2.412096 2.631294 2.907549 3.255192 3.692082 4.309504
2025-05-04 2.105637 2.320128 2.575588 2.911889 3.360071 3.967887 4.926989
2025-05-11 2.017395 2.247741 2.529521 2.913632 3.450834 4.231177 5.606391
2025-05-18 1.917881 2.151580 2.442284 2.847548 3.432914 4.325503 6.039267
2025-05-25 1.853176 2.093421 2.397401 2.831188 3.479852 4.524605 6.754222
2025-06-01 1.795083 2.039358 2.352834 2.809111 3.512377 4.703384 7.532595
2025-06-08 1.743056 1.989806 2.310299 2.784880 3.536391 4.870167 8.409778
2025-06-15 1.715025 1.969685 2.305543 2.814042 3.648725 5.230626 10.245104
2025-06-22 1.646107 1.892247 2.217617 2.711907 3.527811 5.090557 10.203562
2025-06-29 1.616762 1.866401 2.199978 2.714928 3.588073 5.350297 12.201258
2025-07-06 1.573117 1.819558 2.150510 2.665253 3.549283 5.380175 13.223530
2025-07-13 1.555711 1.809032 2.153925 2.701674 3.677327 5.860219 19.283313
2025-07-20 1.551361 1.815924 2.182363 2.780115 3.897827 6.695657 54.476365
2025-07-27 1.526693 1.793470 2.166467 2.784081 3.971866 7.163105 NaN
2025-08-03 1.503127 1.771555 2.150106 2.785666 4.041097 7.665652 NaN
2025-08-10 1.465201 1.728160 2.099739 2.725620 3.969814 7.626529 NaN
2025-08-17 1.440867 1.703275 2.076290 2.710733 3.996498 7.993020 NaN
2025-08-24 1.416631 1.677771 2.050842 2.690627 4.008914 8.319503 NaN
2025-08-31 1.393218 1.652760 2.025184 2.668540 4.014124 8.629189 NaN
2025-09-07 1.382708 1.645840 2.026851 2.695119 4.137896 9.658440 NaN
2025-09-14 1.344634 1.598284 1.964186 2.601904 3.960477 8.918294 NaN
2025-09-21 1.330441 1.584959 1.954329 2.604667 4.020221 9.601725 NaN